1. Field of the Invention
The present invention generally relates to early detection of system component failure, and in particular to monitoring tools for that purpose using statistical analysis of time-managed lifetime data streams of component monitoring information.
2. Background Description
In large scale manufacturing, it is typical to monitor warranty performance of products shipped. Products are shipped on a certain date and, over time, various components may fail, requiring warranty service. A certain level of component failure is to be expected—indeed, that is what the warranty provides for. But there may also be components which have performance problems that result in higher than expected failure rates, and which require upstream remedies such as removal from the distribution chain. Early notification of the need for such upstream remedies is highly desirable.
A number of patents and published applications deal with tracking lifetime (especially failure and reliability) data. U.S. Pat. No. 5,253,184 “Failure and performance tracking system” to D. Kleinschnitz discusses tracking of a single electronic system that has an internal processing ability to diagnose failures and record information about them.
U.S. Pat. No. 5,608,845 “Method for diagnosing a remaining lifetime, apparatus for diagnosing a remaining lifetime, method for displaying remaining lifetime data, display apparatus and expert system” to H. Ohtsuka and M. Utamura discusses an expert system for determining a remaining lifetime of a multi-component aggregate when information about degradation of individual components is available.
U.S. Pat. No. 6,442,508 “Method for internal mechanical component configuration detection” to R. L. Liao, S. P. O'Neal and D. W. Broder describes a method for automatic detection by a system board of a mechanical component covered by warranty and communication of such information.
U.S. Patent Publication No. 2002/0138311 A1 “Dynamic management of part reliability data” to B. Sinex describes a system for dynamically managing maintenance of a member of a fleet (e.g. aircraft) by using warranty-based reliability data.
U.S. Patent Publication No. 2003/0149590 A1 “Warranty data visualization system and method” to A. Cardno and D. Bourke describes a system for visualizing weak points of a given product (e.g. a chair) based on a database representing interaction between customers and merchants.
U.S. Pat. No. 6,684,349 “Reliability assessment and prediction system and method for implementing the same” to L. Gullo, L. Musil and B. Johnson describes a reliability assessment program (RAP) that enables one to assess reliability of new equipment based on similarities and differences between it and the predecessor equipment.
U.S. Pat. No. 6,687,634 “Quality monitoring and maintenance for products employing end user serviceable components” to M. Borg describes a method for monitoring the quality and performance of a product (e.g. laser printer) that enables one to detect that sub-standard third party replacement components are being employed.
U.S. Patent Publication No. 2004/0024726 A1 “First failure data capture” to H. Salem describes a system for capturing data related to failure incidents, and determining which incidents require further processing.
U.S. Patent Publication No. 2004/0123179 A1 “Method, system and computer product for reliability estimation of repairable systems” to D. Dragomir-Daescu, C. Graichen, M. Prabhakaran and C. Daniel describes a method for reliability estimation of a repairable system based on the data pertaining to reliability of its components.
U.S. Patent Publication No. 2004/0167832 A1 “Method and data processing system for managing products and product parts, associated computer product, and computer readable medium” to V. Willie describes a system for managing the process of repairs and recording information about repairs in a database.
U.S. Pat. No. 6,816,798 “Network-based method and system for analyzing and displaying reliability data” to J. Pena-Nieves, T. Hill and A. Arvidson describes a system for displaying reliability data by using Weibull distribution fitting to ensure reliability has not changed due to process variation.
None of the systems described above are able to handle the problem of monitoring massive amounts of time-managed lifetime data, while maintaining a pre-specified low rate of false alarms. What is needed is a method and system capable of such monitoring.